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Wednesday, August 19, 2009

Tips for Trading Ascending Triangles Short

By Jeff Cartridge

Ascending triangles have been very popular with traders on the long side and are not so often traded when it breaks in the downward direction. An ascending triangle is defined by two lines, one on the upper boundary of the price movement which is horizontal and one on the lower side which slopes up.

Ascending Triangles Can Be Traded Short

Ascending triangles are definitely not one of the most predictable patterns that are available to trade short. With just 36% of the patterns breaking down ascending triangles also don't deliver good returns when they do. The average drop is 0.31% in 9 days with about half of the breakouts (44%) being profitable. These results aren't great, but selecting the right conditions can make trading ascending triangles better.

Specific Setups to Improve Profitability

When you look at the performance of an ascending triangle in bearish market conditions you will see the results were stronger than they were in more bullish years. Despite this the pattern works the best at turning points, which occur when the stock and the market are in an up trend or consolidating. The sector should be falling or consolidating to make the best profits.

Avoid ascending triangle trades that break down at the start of the pattern, but it is ok to let the trade go all the way to the point of the ascending triangle before breaking out. Another key to picking successful short breakouts from ascending triangles is to look for a turning point up from the lower boundary that fails to reach the upper boundary and then falls away.

Ensure that the volume is supportive of the breakout, i.e. volume as the stock falls is greater than volume as the stock rises.

Short Trading Ascending Triangles Can Be Profitable

Following a series of simple rules to determine which ascending triangle to trade can improve results dramatically. By applying these filters ascending triangles are profitable on 52% of the trades and return an average of 1.07% per trade in 10 days. This is a profitable pattern to trade.

Note: Statistics for this article have been provided by Patterns Trader after analyzing over 60,000 chart patterns on the Australian market from 2000 - 2008. - 23199

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