Specialize In Trading US Dollar (Part I)
You want to become a currency trader. The most important question that you will ask is which currency pairs are the best for trading? You should focus on the four major currency pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF and USD/JPY in the beginning. You should consider becoming a specialist in US Dollar. Yes, its true; you should become a specialist in understanding and trading the greenback.
Each currency pair actually comprises two currencies. So if you are long in GBP/USD then you are in fact buying the GBP and selling the USD. In each of the major currency pairs, USD is part of the equation.
This means that you should study and understand the fundamentals that drive the US Dollar and the US economy. You should also understand the workings of the Federal Reserve System (FED). Then you have done your homework. Now you can trade any one of the four major currency pairs as all of them depend on USD.
These four major currency pairs are the most liquid pairs in the forex markets. They involve the vast majority of the currency trading. You should think like this. Majors are the most heavily traded pairs and US Dollar is half of each major pair. So if you can understand what drives the USD, it will have a huge impact on your trading plans.
The only thing you need to determine is your bias for USD. What do you think; USD will weaken or strengthen in the near and medium term. Then apply that bias to the major currency pairs.
Just to remind you, suppose you buy a currency pair. You are buying the first currency and selling the second currency in the pair! Suppose your form a bias that USD is going to strengthen. With this bias, you can go long on USD/CHF and USD/JPY. Similarly, you can go short on GBP/USD and EUR/USD.
With one bias, you have the potential of entering into four possible trades. However, each currency pair will react differently to US Dollar strengthening or weakening. Suppose Euro is also strengthening. Both Euro and US Dollar are strengthening at the same time. The currency pair EUR/USD will move less. USD/JPY will move more if JPY is weakening and USD is strengthening.
Lets say you can only afford to trade one standard lot. You have a bearish bias for USD. You can consider going long on either GBP/USD or EUR/USD. What pair you should trade? Which one!
Take a look at GBP and the Euro both at the same time. Find out which of the two currencies is stronger right now. You should trade the stronger currency. You can find that by taking a look at the cross EUR/GBP. If the EUR/GBP cross is down, it means EUR is weakening and GBP is getting stronger. You should trade GBP/USD!
Always include an evaluation of the currency correlations for the major pairs in every trading plan that you make. The correlations between the currency pairs can change any time. So you need to calculate the correlations on weekly basis at least to give you a fair idea. Correlation is determined by what is known as the correlation coefficient which always ranges between +1 and -1. - 23199
Each currency pair actually comprises two currencies. So if you are long in GBP/USD then you are in fact buying the GBP and selling the USD. In each of the major currency pairs, USD is part of the equation.
This means that you should study and understand the fundamentals that drive the US Dollar and the US economy. You should also understand the workings of the Federal Reserve System (FED). Then you have done your homework. Now you can trade any one of the four major currency pairs as all of them depend on USD.
These four major currency pairs are the most liquid pairs in the forex markets. They involve the vast majority of the currency trading. You should think like this. Majors are the most heavily traded pairs and US Dollar is half of each major pair. So if you can understand what drives the USD, it will have a huge impact on your trading plans.
The only thing you need to determine is your bias for USD. What do you think; USD will weaken or strengthen in the near and medium term. Then apply that bias to the major currency pairs.
Just to remind you, suppose you buy a currency pair. You are buying the first currency and selling the second currency in the pair! Suppose your form a bias that USD is going to strengthen. With this bias, you can go long on USD/CHF and USD/JPY. Similarly, you can go short on GBP/USD and EUR/USD.
With one bias, you have the potential of entering into four possible trades. However, each currency pair will react differently to US Dollar strengthening or weakening. Suppose Euro is also strengthening. Both Euro and US Dollar are strengthening at the same time. The currency pair EUR/USD will move less. USD/JPY will move more if JPY is weakening and USD is strengthening.
Lets say you can only afford to trade one standard lot. You have a bearish bias for USD. You can consider going long on either GBP/USD or EUR/USD. What pair you should trade? Which one!
Take a look at GBP and the Euro both at the same time. Find out which of the two currencies is stronger right now. You should trade the stronger currency. You can find that by taking a look at the cross EUR/GBP. If the EUR/GBP cross is down, it means EUR is weakening and GBP is getting stronger. You should trade GBP/USD!
Always include an evaluation of the currency correlations for the major pairs in every trading plan that you make. The correlations between the currency pairs can change any time. So you need to calculate the correlations on weekly basis at least to give you a fair idea. Correlation is determined by what is known as the correlation coefficient which always ranges between +1 and -1. - 23199
About the Author:
Mr. Ahmad Hassam is a Harvard University Graduate. He is interested in day trading and swing trading stocks and currencies. Discover A Revolutionary New Forex Robot. Develop your own Forex Trading System.
posted by X - Men @ 12:57 AM
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